Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AAVE prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 106.835324 123.512469 143.449434 169.499370 203.362101 2.469900e+02 309.430477
2024-10-06 87.132144 108.007826 135.948103 177.823286 242.558521 3.463560e+02 546.184252
2024-10-13 72.006894 92.394345 121.303648 168.006559 248.043173 3.964374e+02 756.556512
2024-10-20 65.130652 86.200904 117.703242 172.394246 276.523799 5.036652e+02 1251.013489
2024-10-27 58.439575 78.972182 110.802828 168.963545 288.800146 5.874246e+02 1912.077466
2024-11-03 56.059010 77.750249 112.959235 181.773350 340.037664 8.239605e+02 4728.486269
2024-11-10 56.191397 80.376223 121.882541 210.244790 446.528031 1.449276e+03 56763.932883
2024-11-17 52.467122 76.126337 117.807738 210.325962 477.999758 1.866024e+03 NaN
2024-11-24 48.924535 71.766362 112.831918 207.048042 497.970051 2.314248e+03 NaN
2024-12-01 45.738915 67.694904 107.832024 202.506569 511.855968 2.823287e+03 NaN
2024-12-08 43.413758 64.908554 104.960541 202.537932 543.952077 3.807621e+03 NaN
2024-12-15 41.422857 62.529891 102.583603 203.285104 580.944616 5.418464e+03 NaN
2024-12-22 38.729315 58.948830 97.929543 198.690801 601.396397 7.712717e+03 NaN
2024-12-29 37.470624 57.934971 98.602183 209.618332 716.191442 2.398648e+04 NaN
2025-01-05 34.666802 53.753258 91.893981 197.082079 689.707308 3.028519e+04 NaN
2025-01-12 33.413357 52.398641 91.186779 202.668343 785.106465 2.592534e+05 NaN
2025-01-19 31.652656 49.912794 87.628852 198.299344 810.845527 2.971013e+08 NaN
2025-01-26 31.269291 50.065936 90.087450 214.668824 1037.035406 NaN NaN
2025-02-02 31.792217 52.064151 97.244527 251.590646 1655.907139 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 30.547597 50.335022 94.996769 251.696948 1834.527713 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 29.233054 48.363623 91.903458 247.408848 1937.864129 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 27.962311 46.400709 88.627358 241.483557 2001.803907 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 27.014472 45.057155 86.817829 241.524414 2218.551583 NaN NaN